Why Are China-Taiwan Relations So Tense
Disputes regarding Taiwan’s status have ignited escalating hostilities between the island and the mainland. Taiwan could emerge as a potential hotspot in U.S.-China relations.
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Summary
- Taiwan has enjoyed self-governance separate from China since 1949, while Beijing regards the island as an integral part of its territory. Beijing has expressed its commitment to ultimately “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland, even if it necessitates the use of force.
- Current tensions are on the rise. President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, whose party advocates for independence, has strongly criticized Beijing’s attempts to erode democratic principles. Meanwhile, Beijing has intensified both political and military pressure on Taipei.
- Some experts express concerns about the potential for armed conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan. The visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island in 2022 exacerbated the already heightened tensions between the two nations.
Why Are China-Taiwan Relations So Tense
Taiwan, officially recognized as the Republic of China (ROC), is an island located across the Taiwan Strait from mainland China. Since 1949, it has maintained its governance independent of mainland China, officially known as the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
The PRC regards Taiwan as a wayward province and is committed to eventual reunification with the mainland. Within Taiwan, a nation with its own democratically elected government and a population of twenty-three million, political leaders hold differing perspectives on the island’s status and its relations with the mainland.
Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have intensified following the election of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016. Tsai has rejected the framework endorsed by her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, which aimed to enhance cross-strait relations.
In the meantime, Beijing has adopted increasingly assertive measures, including the deployment of fighter jets near the island. Concerns have been raised by some analysts that a potential Chinese military action against Taiwan could lead to U.S. involvement in a conflict with China.
Is Taiwan a part of China?
Beijing maintains the position that there exists only “one China,” with Taiwan considered an integral part of it. This stance, referred to as the One-China principle, establishes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legitimate government of China and advocates for the eventual “reunification” of Taiwan with the mainland.
According to Beijing, Taiwan is expected to adhere to an agreement known as the 1992 Consensus, a purported understanding reached between representatives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) party, which governed Taiwan at the time.
However, the two sides do not share a consensus on the exact content of this agreement, and it was never intended to address the issue of Taiwan’s legal status. From the perspective of the PRC, as articulated by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the 1992 Consensus signifies an accord that “both sides of the strait belong to one China and will collaborate in pursuing national reunification.”
In contrast, the KMT interprets it as “one China, different interpretations,” with the Republic of China (ROC) representing that “one China.
Taiwan’s constitution, originally drafted by the Kuomintang (KMT), continues to acknowledge China, Mongolia, Taiwan, Tibet, and the South China Sea as parts of the Republic of China (ROC). The KMT has consistently advocated for closer ties with Beijing and refrains from supporting Taiwan’s independence.
Nevertheless, in the wake of recent electoral setbacks, KMT leaders have deliberated whether to revise the party’s position on the 1992 Consensus.
The KMT’s primary political adversary, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has never endorsed the terms outlined in the 1992 Consensus. President Tsai, who also leads the DPP, has refrained from explicitly endorsing the consensus. Instead, she has sought alternative language that might find favor with Beijing.
In her inaugural address in 2016, Tsai underscored her election as president in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of China, a document that reflects the one-China principle.
She vowed to protect the sovereignty and territory of the Republic of China and to handle cross-strait affairs in accordance with the Republic of China Constitution, the Act Governing Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area, and other pertinent legislation. However, Beijing rejected this formulation and suspended official communications with Taiwan.
In a 2019 speech, Chinese President Xi reiterated China’s long-standing proposal for Taiwan, suggesting its incorporation into the mainland under the “one country, two systems” framework, the same model applied to Hong Kong, which was guaranteed the preservation of its political and economic systems and a high degree of autonomy.
Nevertheless, this framework has encountered significant resistance among the Taiwanese populace. Pointing to Beijing’s recent curtailment of freedoms in Hong Kong, both Tsai and even the KMT have rejected the “one country, two systems” approach.
Is Taiwan a member of the United Nations (UN)?
China consistently opposes Taiwan’s participation as a member in United Nations (UN) agencies and other international organizations that restrict membership to nation-states. Taiwan regularly protests its exclusion, with the United States also advocating for Taiwan’s meaningful involvement in such organizations.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Taipei criticized the World Health Organization (WHO) for yielding to Beijing’s pressures and continuing to deny Taiwan—whose response to the pandemic was among the most effective worldwide in the initial years of the crisis—a seat at the World Health Assembly as an observer. Ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations have called for Taiwan’s inclusion in WHO forums.
However, Taiwan maintains full membership status in over forty organizations, mainly on a regional level, including the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, as well as in the World Trade Organization. Additionally, it holds observer or equivalent statuses in several other international bodies.
Only thirteen countries maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. In March 2023, Honduras became the most recent nation to sever ties with Taiwan and establish diplomatic relations with China. No government has ever simultaneously upheld official diplomatic ties with both China and Taiwan.
What is the United States’ relationship with Taiwan?
In 1979, the United States officially established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Simultaneously, the U.S. terminated its diplomatic ties and canceled its mutual defense treaty with the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan.
Nevertheless, the United States maintains a strong unofficial relationship with Taiwan and continues to provide defense equipment to its military. Beijing has consistently called on Washington to discontinue arms sales to Taiwan and cease official contact with Taipei.
The U.S. approach is guided by its One-China policy [PDF], which is based on several key documents, including:
- The three U.S.-China communiqués, which were established in 1972, 1978, and 1982.
- The Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in 1979.
- The recently declassified “Six Assurances,” which President Ronald Reagan conveyed to Taiwan in 1982.
These documents outline the United States’ approach, which includes the following principles:
- Recognizes the Chinese assertion that there is a single China, with Taiwan considered part of it (some U.S. officials have stressed that the use of the term “recognize” indicates the United States does not necessarily endorse the Chinese position).
- Opposes the use of force as a means to resolve the dispute.
- Sustains cultural, commercial, and other connections with Taiwan, managed through the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT).
- Commits to the sale of defensive weaponry to Taiwan.
- Retains the capability to intervene in Taiwan’s defense, without committing to a specific course of action, a strategy referred to as strategic ambiguity.
The United States’ primary objective is to uphold peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, urging both Beijing and Taipei to preserve the existing state of affairs. Washington has consistently stated that it does not endorse Taiwanese independence.
For many years, the United States has pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity, striving to strike a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and avoiding a conflict with China. However, President Joe Biden has appeared to depart from this policy, making multiple statements that the United States would intervene in Taiwan’s defense if China were to launch an attack.
While White House officials have clarified that the policy remains unchanged, the final decision ultimately rests with the president. Some members of Congress and several experts, including CFR President Richard Haass and Research Fellow David Sacks, have welcomed President Biden’s statements, arguing that China’s heightened assertiveness necessitates a more explicit stance. Others have voiced disagreement with this position.
How have recent U.S. administrations approached Taiwan?
During President Donald Trump’s tenure, the United States strengthened its relations with Taiwan despite Chinese objections. This was exemplified by the sale of over $18 billion worth of military equipment to Taiwan and the inauguration of a $250 million complex for its de facto embassy in Taipei.
Notably, President Trump engaged in a telephone conversation with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen before his inauguration, marking the highest-level contact between the two sides since 1979.
Furthermore, he dispatched several senior administration officials, including a cabinet member, to visit Taipei. In his final days in office, the State Department removed longstanding restrictions that dictated where and how U.S. officials could meet with their Taiwanese counterparts.
U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan by Recent Administrations
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Sources: Congressional Research Service; Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
The Biden administration has continued in a similar vein, maintaining arms sales and upholding the Trump administration’s decision to allow more unrestricted meetings between U.S. and Taiwanese officials.
President Biden marked a historic moment by becoming the first U.S. president to invite Taiwanese representatives to attend his presidential inauguration. The United States actively engages in military training and dialogues with Taiwan, routinely conducts naval passages through the Taiwan Strait to underline its military presence in the region, and has encouraged Taiwan to enhance its defense expenditures.
Taiwan has received consistent bipartisan support in Congress over the years. Lawmakers have introduced and passed legislation aimed at strengthening U.S.-Taiwan relations, bolstering the island’s defenses, and promoting its involvement in international organizations.
The latest proposed legislation, the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, includes the designation of Taiwan as a major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally. In August 2022, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) visited Taipei, becoming the first speaker to do so since Newt Gingrich (R-GA) in 1997.
During her visit, she met with President Tsai Ing-wen. Beijing vehemently criticized the visit and responded by planning military exercises that encircled the island and imposing bans on the import of certain fruit and fish from Taiwan, among other actions.
Less than a year later, President Tsai held a meeting with the new House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), during a visit to California in March 2023. McCarthy’s meeting with the Taiwanese president marked the highest-ranking U.S. official to meet with a Taiwanese president on U.S. soil in almost thirty years.
Despite the brevity of the visit, it triggered a similar strong response from China, including condemnation, the imposition of new sanctions, and a display of military strength in the Taiwan Strait.
Could war erupt over Taiwan?
One of the foremost concerns among U.S. analysts is the potential for a conflict arising from China’s escalating military capabilities and assertiveness, coupled with the worsening cross-strait relations. Such a conflict could have far-reaching implications, potentially leading to a confrontation between the United States and China.
This is due to the fact that China has not ruled out the use of force to achieve Taiwan’s “reunification,” and the United States has not ruled out defending Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
A 2021 report by the U.S. Department of Defense stated that China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is likely preparing for a scenario involving the use of force to unify Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China, while simultaneously aiming to deter, delay, or prevent any third-party intervention, such as the United States.
Nevertheless, there is a significant difference of opinion among experts regarding the probability and timing of a potential Chinese invasion. In 2021, the top U.S. military commander in the Indo-Pacific region warned that China could attempt to invade Taiwan within the next decade, while others believe such an invasion is further down the road. Some experts consider the year 2049 as a critical date; Chinese President Xi Jinping has stressed that the reunification with Taiwan is crucial for realizing what he refers to as the “Chinese Dream,” which envisions the restoration of China’s great-power status by 2049.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 reignited the debate, with some analysts suggesting that Moscow’s actions might embolden Beijing to similarly invade Taiwan, while others argue that China could become more cautious after witnessing the challenges Russia faced. CFR’s David Sacks contends that Russia’s actions won’t directly impact China’s willingness to use force, but Chinese leaders may study Russia’s failures and adjust their operational plans to avoid similar mistakes.
Nonetheless, the PLA has made preparing for a Taiwan contingency one of its top priorities, and Taiwan has been a major driver of China’s military modernization efforts. In a 2019 defense white paper, the PLA stated its determination to “resolutely defeat anyone attempting to separate Taiwan from China.”
Analysts generally agree that Taiwan likely lacks the capabilities to defend against a Chinese attack without external support. Despite President Tsai and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) allocating significant resources to bolster defense spending, with a record budget exceeding $19 billion for 2023, China’s defense spending is still estimated to be around twelve times that of Taiwan.
In 2022, Taiwanese lawmakers approved the Tsai government’s plan to allocate an additional $8.6 billion to defense spending over the next five years, which will be used to acquire cruise missiles, naval mines, and advanced surveillance systems to fortify Taiwan’s coastal defenses.
How has China tried to bully Taiwan?
China has employed an array of coercive tactics, short of military engagement, and has escalated these measures since Tsai’s election in 2016. The aim is to gradually erode Taiwan’s resilience and encourage its populace to conclude that reunification with the mainland is the most viable option.
To this end, China has increased the frequency and scale of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) bomber, fighter jet, and surveillance aircraft patrols over and around Taiwan. Furthermore, it has heightened the presence of its warships and aircraft carriers in the Taiwan Strait as displays of military force.
Taiwan has reported that it faces thousands of daily cyberattacks from China targeting its government agencies, with a substantial surge in recent years. In 2020, Taipei accused four Chinese hacker groups of infiltrating at least ten Taiwanese government agencies and accessing six thousand official email accounts since 2018 in an attempt to obtain government data and personal information.
In addition to military and cyber activities, Beijing has resorted to nonmilitary methods to exert pressure on Taiwan. In 2016, China suspended a cross-strait communication mechanism with the main Taiwan liaison office. It imposed restrictions on tourism to Taiwan, leading to a decline in the number of mainland Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan, which dropped from a peak of over 4 million in 2015 to 2.7 million in 2019.
China has also used its influence to coerce global corporations, including airlines and hotel chains, into designating Taiwan as a province of China. Furthermore, Beijing has employed tactics to intimidate countries that maintain ties with Taiwan; in 2021, China ceased trade with Lithuania after the latter opened a representative office for Taiwan in its capital.
Has Beijing sabotage Taiwan’s democracy?
China has intensified its interference in Taiwan’s elections, employing tactics such as disseminating disinformation on social media and extending its influence over Taiwanese media outlets. For instance, during the 2020 election, China engaged in the spread of disinformation, seemingly with the aim of tarnishing Tsai’s reputation and bolstering the presidential candidate of the Kuomintang (KMT). These efforts are part of China’s broader strategy to apply pressure, undermine trust in Taiwan’s political system, and foster divisions within Taiwanese society. Nonetheless, experts interpret the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) success in recent elections, including Tsai’s re-election in 2020, as a rejection of Beijing’s tactics.
Taiwan’s democracy is relatively young. From 1949 to 1987, Taiwan was governed under martial law by the KMT, during which time political dissent was harshly suppressed, and indigenous Taiwanese who had long inhabited the island prior to 1945 faced discrimination. Taiwan held its initial free legislative elections in 1992 and its inaugural presidential elections in 1996. Since then, it has experienced multiple peaceful transitions of power between political parties.
Despite the threats posed by China, Taiwan appears to have thus far resisted the global trend of democratic decline. In 2020, the Economist’s Democracy Index classified Taiwan as a “full democracy” for the first time. In 2022, the same index ranked Taiwan as the world’s tenth-most democratic nation, surpassing its Asian neighbors (with Japan ranking sixteenth and South Korea ranking twenty-fourth) and the United States, which was ranked thirtieth. Recent elections in Taiwan have been characterized by high voter turnout.
Do Taiwanese people support independence?
The majority of people in Taiwan support maintaining the current status quo, as indicated by opinion polls conducted by National Chengchi University. A small minority advocate for immediate independence, while even fewer express support for the unification of Taiwan with China. Notably, an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese residents reject the “one country, two systems” model, and this sentiment has grown stronger in response to Beijing’s crackdown on freedoms in Hong Kong.
There is a growing sense of identification among Taiwanese people with Taiwan itself rather than with the mainland. In 2022, nearly 61 percent of the island’s residents exclusively identified as Taiwanese, as revealed by a survey by National Chengchi University.
In contrast, 33 percent identified as both Taiwanese and Chinese, a decline from 40 percent a decade earlier. Only about 3 percent considered themselves solely Chinese, a viewpoint that has become less popular since 1994 when 26 percent identified as such. Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, who visited China in March 2023, is among those who identify as Chinese. During his visit, he stated, “we are all Chinese,” marking the first visit by a president of Taiwan to China since the Kuomintang (KMT) assumed governance of the island in 1949.
What is Taiwan’s economic situation?
Taiwan’s economy continues to depend significantly on trade with China, with the latter being the island’s largest trading partner. Nevertheless, their economic relationship has encountered disruptions in recent years, stemming in part from Beijing’s exertion of pressure on Taiwan and the mounting concerns of Taiwanese officials regarding the island’s excessive reliance on trade with China.
China Makes Up the Largest Share of Taiwan’s Trade
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During President Ma’s term, which spanned from 2008 to 2016, Taiwan and China signed over twenty agreements, including the 2010 Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, which aimed to remove trade barriers.
This period saw the resumption of direct sea, air, and mail connections between China and Taiwan, which had been restricted for decades. Additionally, they permitted financial-service providers, including banks and insurers, to operate in both markets.
In contrast, President Tsai and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have made efforts to diversify Taiwan’s trade relationships, with varying degrees of success. Tsai has achieved some progress in boosting trade and investment with countries in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific through her flagship initiative, the New Southbound Policy.
Trade between Taiwan and the eighteen designated countries nearly doubled between 2016 when the initiative was launched and 2022. Furthermore, Taiwanese investments in those nations have steadily increased. In 2019, Tsai introduced a three-year plan to encourage Taiwanese manufacturers to relocate from the mainland back to Taiwan.
Nevertheless, in 2021, Taiwan’s exports to China reached a record high. Beijing has applied pressure on countries not to enter into free trade agreements with Taiwan. A few countries have entered into such agreements with Taiwan, with New Zealand and Singapore being the sole developed economies to do so.
China has also advocated for Taiwan’s exclusion from multilateral trading blocs, including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). (China is a member of RCEP but not of CPTPP.) Additionally, Taiwan is not part of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
Have cross-strait tensions hurt Taiwan’s vital semiconductor chip manufacturers?
Taiwan stands as the world’s foremost contract manufacturer of semiconductor chips, and its semiconductor industry continues to thrive despite tensions in the cross-strait relationship. Semiconductor chips manufactured in Taiwan are integral components in a wide range of electronic devices, including smartphones, computers, vehicles, and even advanced weapons systems reliant on artificial intelligence. Taiwanese companies were responsible for over 60 percent of the revenue generated by the world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 2022.
A significant portion of this success can be attributed to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chip maker and the primary supplier for Apple and other major U.S. firms. TSMC is one of only two companies globally (the other being South Korea-based Samsung) with the technological capability to produce the smallest, most advanced semiconductor chips, and it manufactures more than 90 percent of them.
Some experts contend that the United States’ reliance on Taiwanese chip firms heightens its motivation to defend Taiwan from a potential Chinese attack. Recognizing the extent of the United States’ dependence on TSMC for critical chips, President Biden has advocated for strengthening the domestic U.S. chip industry. In August 2022, Congress passed a comprehensive $280 billion bill aimed at promoting domestic chip manufacturing.
Following this legislation, the Biden administration imposed stringent export controls to limit China’s access to advanced chips, including those produced by TSMC. Experts suggest that these restrictions could impede China’s technology sector. Prior to the export controls, China acquired approximately 70 percent of its chips from TSMC. In response, Beijing is intensifying efforts to enhance its own chip industry, including expanding production through Huawei, a major Chinese telecommunications company that the U.S. government alleges Beijing could exploit for espionage purposes.