Tensions and Outcomes of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit
The upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference scheduled for next month in San Francisco is expected to have minimal impact on the United States’ stance on regional economic integration and trade.
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Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit
The forthcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering in San Francisco, taking place from November 11-17, is expected to be marked by escalating geopolitical tensions. The Joe Biden administration’s overview underscores APEC’s role as the “principal platform for the United States to advance economic strategies in the Asia-Pacific region, promoting equitable, open, and free trade and investment while fostering sustainable and inclusive economic growth.” It’s worth noting that APEC’s twenty-one member economies collectively represent roughly half of global trade.
Despite the Biden administration’s summit theme of “Creating a Resilient and Sustainable Future for All,” it is probable that this theme will be overshadowed by the discussions. The United States’ economic approach to Asia has left many APEC members disillusioned, including close allies such as Japan.
The administration has struggled to convince most APEC nations of the merits of its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, commonly known as IPEF. Although the IPEF includes commendable elements such as enhancing supply chain resilience and promoting clean energy, it falls short of being a comprehensive trade agreement and does not provide access to the U.S. market.
Considering the prevailing dysfunction in Congress, the prospects for a U.S. trade agreement with Asian partners appear exceedingly slim. When juxtaposed with the substantial regional trade integration efforts currently spearheaded by China, South Korea, and Japan, and with the support of ASEAN, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) does not present a compelling economic advantage for Asian member states.
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Despite the potential rhetoric and positive language that may emanate from APEC discussions, it is improbable that the Biden administration’s stance on free trade and its overall economic approach to the region will undergo significant alterations.
Moreover, contrasting viewpoints among member states regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict may impede the meeting’s effectiveness. APEC encompasses a wide array of perspectives on the Middle East issue, including the United States, Australia, and Canada, which are part of the regional forum. Additionally, there are countries for whom the Middle East conflict holds little priority. While these nations would prefer not to let the conflict overshadow APEC discussions, avoiding this challenge is nearly insurmountable.
Furthermore, certain APEC members, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, who have issued strong statements regarding Israel’s actions, are likely to raise questions with the Biden administration about its stance on the conflict. This dialogue is bound to surface and could potentially become a contentious topic at the meeting, although it may not be more contentious than APEC’s immediate challenges in regional economic policy or concerns about the deteriorating U.S.-China relations. In the event of the latter scenario, Southeast Asian nations are apprehensive about being compelled to choose sides.