The Era of Messi and Ronaldo’s Ballon d’Or Dominance Fades Away

The England midfielder leads the race for the 2024 prize, challenging the expected football duopoly.

Lionel Messi’s Ballon d’Or acceptance speech on Monday was tinged with a sense of melancholy. Holding the trophy for the eighth time in his illustrious career, the Argentine reflected on his achievements over the past 12 months, which included his World Cup triumph, and concluded by paying tribute to Diego Maradona on what would have been his 63rd birthday.

In addition, Messi acknowledged that the day of his retirement is drawing nearer. Speculation arose about the longevity of his physical capabilities and whether this eighth Golden Ball would mark his final triumph. Messi essentially conceded this possibility, turning to the fellow finalists seated in the front row—Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe—and asserted that they were the likely successors to the coveted trophy.

However, Messi omitted someone from his list. Despite their exceptional qualities, goal-scoring prowess, accolades, and personal brands, Mbappe and Haaland can no longer lay claim to being the unchallenged duopoly at the pinnacle of the sport, a status that Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo once held.

A new player has stepped onto the scene, making the competition more intriguing: Jude Bellingham. Currently, the Real Madrid midfielder appears to be the frontrunner for next year’s Ballon d’Or, and it seems like this could be the first of numerous victories to come.

Over the past 15 years, the footballing world’s attention has naturally shifted toward Haaland and Mbappe. These two exceptional talents stand as the only goal-scorers in the world who can make a reasonable claim to approaching the remarkable numbers posted by Messi and Ronaldo over the past two decades. Mbappe has secured his place as PSG’s all-time leading goal-scorer, while Haaland shattered the Premier League’s goal-scoring record last season and appears poised to break numerous significant milestones in the Champions League.

Much like the Messi-Ronaldo rivalry, there’s a fascinating stylistic clash in this battle as well.

On one side, we have Mbappe, the glamorous Parisian superstar known for his dazzling stepovers, swift cuts, and expertly curled finishes. He frequently scores the same type of goal, yet it’s nearly impossible to prevent. He propelled his team to a Ligue 1 title with an electrifying run towards the end of the previous season. At the age of 23, he notched a hat-trick in his second World Cup final and was back in team training a mere 72 hours later.

On the other side, we find Haaland, the “robot.” Bigger, stronger, and faster than his peers, the Norwegian embodies the perfect fusion of athleticism and intelligence. Never before has a footballer of his stature managed to exploit such tight spaces with such ease. He made 52 goals look effortless and secured a historic treble for Manchester City while making a mockery of various English records.

Adding to the intrigue are their contrasting personalities—the understated confidence of Mbappe and the plain-spoken, almost enigmatic, demeanor of Haaland. This captivating duel gains further complexity when considering that Ballon d’Or voters often emphasize goal-scoring statistics above all else.

Over the next decade, both Haaland and Mbappe will continue to amass goals and claim numerous trophies, both as part of a team and on an individual level. This provides ample material for journalists and social media to craft a compelling narrative. Game on!

Bellingham, within the first two months of the season, has presented a compelling argument to shift the narrative. Previously, it seemed that he might one day enter the conversation for the Ballon d’Or, but with Haaland and Mbappe scoring at a breathtaking pace and several players of similar age impressing across Europe, that prospect appeared distant.

The landscape has undeniably changed. Bellingham’s progression has accelerated significantly. His statistics for Madrid this season surpass those of his primary competitors for the 2024 Ballon d’Or. The English midfielder has notched 14 goals and provided six assists for club and country thus far this term, outpacing both Mbappe and Haaland in terms of overall goal contributions.

What truly sets Bellingham apart are his performances in pivotal moments. From his brace in his debut Clasico, securing a comeback victory, to the last-gasp winner against Union Berlin in the Champions League, and the mesmerizing run and finish in Naples that invited comparisons to Maradona, he consistently delivers in clutch situations. This ability to perform under pressure distinguishes the very good from the world-class elite.

Moreover, Bellingham’s achievements are set against a significant backdrop. Some had predicted that Madrid would perform below their recent standards, given the loss of Karim Benzema and the absence of an immediate replacement in his role, which was expected to hinder their goal-scoring capabilities and overall potential as a team.

However, bolstered by Bellingham’s form, Carlo Ancelotti’s side currently leads La Liga and boasts a perfect record in the Champions League, winning all three of their matches. Bellingham not only filled the void left by Benzema but also surpassed the goal-scoring output of the 2022 Ballon d’Or winner from the previous season.

While Madrid had three more points at the same stage of the previous season, their goal differential is now better. Benzema, at this point last season, had only managed seven goals and one assist. Bellingham has nearly doubled that goal tally, despite playing in a No.10 role in Ancelotti’s new diamond midfield.

This challenge is compounded by the inherent bias against non-forwards in the Ballon d’Or voting process. While Messi and Ronaldo’s consistent claims to the trophy have been well-founded over the past 15 years, the stark absence of midfielders and defenders in the mix has been glaring.

Luka Modric did win the award in 2018, although his victory was not without controversy. Apart from Virgil van Dijk’s close call in 2019, the award has primarily favored attacking players in recent years.

Andres Iniesta and Xavi did make podium appearances in the early 2010s, but their share of the vote never exceeded 17 percent. Even Kaka, who won the award in 2007, did so while primarily operating as a second striker for AC Milan. Modric was the first player since Zinedine Zidane in 1998 to win as a more traditional central midfielder.

Bellingham, however, is far from a conventional player, and his role in this Madrid side doesn’t align with the styles of Xavi, Iniesta, Frank Lampard, or Steven Gerrard, all of whom earned voter respect at various points in their illustrious careers. Nevertheless, due to the nature of his position, he still faces an uphill battle.

Furthermore, history shows that the Ballon d’Or is not often awarded to English players. Michael Owen claimed the Ballon d’Or in 2001, and before that, Kevin Keegan, representing Hamburg in 1971, was the previous Englishman to secure the honor. Therefore, Bellingham’s triumph, should he achieve it, would indeed be a remarkable accomplishment.

This isn’t just a short-term prospect. It’s important to recognize that Bellingham, in case you weren’t already aware, is a mere 20 years old. He still has a minimum of six more years ahead at Santiago Bernabeu, and it’s reasonable to expect him to continually evolve as a footballer during that time. Bellingham himself has acknowledged that he’s developed in the three short months since donning a Madrid jersey for the first time. So, theoretically, we haven’t even witnessed the best version of Bellingham yet. Unless hampered by injury, it’s not even on the horizon.

The same can be said for Haaland, of course. Pep Guardiola boasts a commendable track record of enhancing players and pushing them to evolve in significant ways. This is the manager who initially deployed Messi as a false nine and has influenced much of Europe to adopt inverted full-backs. Given the right circumstances, he can transform Haaland, a pure goal-scorer, into a potent creative force.

Mbappe, too, is likely to undergo changes as a footballer. His anticipated move to Madrid in the near future will necessitate tactical adjustments, if not necessarily stylistic ones. At not yet 25, there’s a wealth of footballing excellence yet to unfold.

While Mbappe and Haaland are already established as remarkable talents, Bellingham has the potential to become whatever he aspires to be. His game is essentially founded on extraordinary versatility. He wore the number 22 for Birmingham City and Borussia Dortmund because he could operate as a No.4, No.8, or No.10. Birmingham even retired the number when he left the club, despite him having made just 44 appearances. His legend continues to grow.

So, while Bellingham is currently the frontrunner for the 2024 Ballon d’Or, it’s entirely possible that Mbappe or Haaland could surpass him by the time July arrives. Yet, even if it doesn’t happen next year, the likelihood remains high for a world-class player who has yet to reach his peak.

Messi and Ronaldo have likely seen their last Ballons d’Or, while Mbappe, Haaland, and now Bellingham are poised to dominate the footballing world for at least the next decade.