What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal? Here is What You Can Get
Reviving this arms control agreement has encountered several obstacles, such as Iran’s progress in the nuclear field and its involvement in conflicts in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine.
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Summary
- Signed in 2015 by Iran and multiple global nations, including the United States, the JCPOA imposed substantial constraints on Iran’s nuclear activities while offering sanctions relief.
- In 2018, President Trump opted to withdraw the United States from the agreement, asserting that it did not effectively curb Iran’s missile program and regional sway. Subsequently, Iran started disregarding its nuclear program restrictions a year later.
- Both Washington and Tehran have expressed their intention to reinstate the initial accord, yet they remain at odds over the specific measures required to achieve this goal.
Introduction to Iran Nuclear Deal
The Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a historic agreement forged between Iran and several global powers, including the United States, in July 2015. In this pact, Iran committed to dismantling a significant portion of its nuclear program and granting broader international access to its facilities in exchange for the removal of billions of dollars in economic sanctions.
Supporters of the accord argued that it would effectively thwart any resurgence of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, ultimately reducing the potential for conflict in the Middle East, especially with Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Nevertheless, the agreement has been under threat ever since President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018. In response to the U.S. withdrawal and lethal attacks on high-profile Iranians in 2020, including one attributed to the United States, Iran resumed its nuclear activities. UN inspectors disclosed in early 2023 that Iran had enriched small amounts of uranium to near-weapons-grade levels, provoking widespread international concern.
President Joe Biden has stated that the United States would rejoin the JCPOA if Iran were to return to compliance. However, after more than two years of on-again, off-again negotiations, the countries remain far from reaching a consensus. As of late 2023, provisions of the agreement have already begun to expire.
Who are the participants?
The JCPOA, which became effective in January 2016, places constraints on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program. The primary parties engaged in negotiations with Iran included the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), along with Germany, collectively referred to as the P5+1. The European Union (EU) was also an active participant in these talks.
Certain Middle Eastern nations, such as Saudi Arabia, contended that they should have been consulted or included in the negotiations, as they would be significantly impacted by a nuclear-armed Iran. Israel, on the other hand, openly opposed the agreement, characterizing it as excessively lenient.
What were the goals?
The P5+1 aimed to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program to the extent that, in the event Tehran opted to pursue a nuclear weapon, it would require at least one year, affording world powers ample time to respond. Prior to the JCPOA negotiations, U.S. intelligence experts estimated that, in the absence of an agreement, Iran could amass sufficient nuclear materials for a weapon within a matter of months.
Negotiating nations were deeply concerned that Iran’s efforts to become a nuclear-armed state posed a significant risk of triggering a new crisis in the region. There was apprehension that Israel might take pre-emptive military action against suspected nuclear facilities in Iran, similar to its actions in Iraq and Syria, which could potentially lead to retaliatory measures by Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, or disruptions to the transportation of oil in the Persian Gulf. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has indicated its willingness to acquire a nuclear weapon in response to a successful Iranian nuclear detonation.
Iran had previously committed to abstaining from the development of nuclear weapons as a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which has been in effect since 1970. However, following the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, Iranian leaders pursued this technology clandestinely. (In 2007, U.S. intelligence analysts determined that Iran had ceased its work on nuclear weapons in 2003 but continued to acquire nuclear technology and expertise.)
Before the JCPOA, the P5+1 engaged in prolonged negotiations with Iran, offering a range of incentives to persuade its government to cease uranium enrichment. After the election of President Hassan Rouhani in 2013, who was perceived as a reformist figure, the parties reached a preliminary agreement to guide the negotiations for a comprehensive deal.
In return, Iran pursued the JCPOA to gain relief from international sanctions, which had severely impacted its economy, leading to a loss of over $100 billion in revenue from 2012 to 2014 alone.
Does it prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons?
Numerous experts contend that if all parties remained committed to their commitments, the agreement could have likely effectively achieved its objectives for a period exceeding a decade. The JCPOA includes time-limited restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.
For instance, after ten years (from January 2016), restrictions on centrifuges would be lifted, and after fifteen years, limitations on the quantity of low-enriched uranium that Iran can stockpile would also expire. Some critics of the deal criticized these provisions, often referred to as “sunset provisions,” asserting that they would merely postpone Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon while sanctions relief could enable it to support terrorism in the region. [PDF]
What did Iran agree to?
Nuclear Restrictions: Iran made commitments to refrain from producing highly enriched uranium or plutonium that could be utilized in the creation of nuclear weapons. It also ensured that its Fordow, Natanz, and Arak facilities were designated for civilian purposes, including medical and industrial research.
The agreement imposed limitations on various aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, including the number and types of centrifuges Iran could operate, the level of uranium enrichment allowed, and the size of its enriched uranium stockpile. Uranium enriched to 5 percent is typically used in nuclear power plants, while at 20 percent, it can serve in research reactors or for medical applications. In contrast, high-enriched uranium, at approximately 90 percent, is typically associated with nuclear weapons.
Monitoring and Verification: Iran agreed to eventually implement a protocol that would grant International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors unrestricted access to its nuclear facilities and potentially to undisclosed sites. These inspections are designed to prevent the possibility of Iran secretly developing nuclear weapons, as it has been accused of doing in the past. The IAEA regularly issued quarterly reports to its board of governors and the UN Security Council to assess Iran’s compliance with its nuclear commitments.
A body called the Joint Commission, consisting of representatives from all negotiating parties, oversaw the implementation of the agreement and resolved any disputes that arose. A majority vote by its members could enable IAEA inspectors to access suspicious undisclosed sites. Additionally, the Joint Commission managed the transfer of nuclear-related or dual-use materials.
What did the other signatories commit to?
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Sanctions Relief: The European Union, United Nations, and the United States made commitments to lift their nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. However, a significant number of U.S. sanctions against Iran, some of which dated back to the 1979 hostage crisis, remained in effect. These encompassed areas such as Iran’s ballistic missile program, support for terrorist groups, and human rights violations. Although the United States agreed to lift sanctions on oil exports, it retained restrictions on financial transactions, which hindered international trade with Iran.
Weapons Embargo: The parties agreed to lift an existing UN ban on Iran’s transfer of conventional weapons and ballistic missiles after five years, contingent upon the IAEA certifying that Iran’s nuclear activities remained exclusively for civilian purposes.
How is the Iran deal enforced?
If any signatory suspects Iran of violating the agreement, the UN Security Council has the authority to vote on whether to extend sanctions relief. This “snapback” mechanism remains in effect for ten years, after which UN sanctions are slated for permanent removal.
In April 2020, the United States declared its intention to activate the snapback sanctions. However, the other P5 members objected to this move, arguing that the United States could not unilaterally employ the mechanism because it had withdrawn from the nuclear deal in 2018.
Did Iran initially adhere to the agreement?
The agreement began on a relatively smooth note. In early 2016, the IAEA confirmed that Iran had fulfilled its initial commitments, prompting the United States, EU, and United Nations to repeal or suspend their sanctions. Notably, the Obama administration in the United States lifted secondary sanctions on the oil sector, allowing Iran to substantially increase its oil exports to levels near those prior to sanctions. The United States and numerous European nations also unfroze approximately $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
However, the viability of the agreement has been in jeopardy since President Trump’s withdrawal from it in 2018 and the reinstatement of severe banking and oil sanctions. President Trump argued that the agreement failed to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and its proxy activities in the region, and he contended that the agreement’s sunset provisions could enable Iran to pursue nuclear weapons in the future.
Iran accused the United States of failing to uphold its commitments and criticized Europe for yielding to U.S. unilateralism. In an effort to preserve the agreement, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom initiated a barter system called INSTEX to facilitate transactions with Iran, circumventing the U.S. banking system. However, INSTEX was employed only once before France and Germany announced its dissolution in 2023, citing Iranian obstruction.
After the U.S. withdrawal, several countries, including U.S. allies, continued to import Iranian oil under waivers granted by the Trump administration, and Iran continued to honor its commitments. However, a year later, the United States terminated the waivers with the objective of completely halting Iran’s oil exports.
What is Iran’s current nuclear activity?
In response to actions by other parties that Tehran claimed constituted breaches of the agreement, Iran began to surpass agreed-upon limits on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium in 2019. It also initiated the enrichment of uranium to higher concentrations, though still well below the purity necessary for weapons. Iran embarked on the development of new centrifuges to expedite uranium enrichment [PDF], resumed heavy water production at its Arak facility, and carried out uranium enrichment at Fordow, which rendered the isotopes produced there unsuitable for medical purposes.
Iran’s Major Nuclear Facilities
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Sources:Â Â International Atomic Energy Agency; Nuclear Threat Initiative
In 2020, Iran took further steps concerning its nuclear commitments, in response to a series of attacks on its interests. Following the targeted killing of top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani by the United States in January, Iran declared its decision to no longer adhere to the restrictions on uranium enrichment.
Additionally, in October, Iran initiated the construction of a centrifuge production center at Natanz to replace one that had been destroyed in a previous attack, which Iran attributed to Israel. In November, following the assassination of a prominent nuclear scientist, also attributed to Israel, Iran’s parliament passed a law to significantly increase uranium enrichment at Fordow.
Iran has increasingly restricted the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) access to inspect its nuclear facilities since the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear deal. However, in March 2023, Iran made a commitment to enhance cooperation with the IAEA, which came after IAEA inspectors had detected uranium particles enriched to 83.7 percent at Fordow, leading to international concerns.
How has the nuclear deal impacted Iran’s economy?
Before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran’s economy had experienced years of recession, currency depreciation, and inflation, primarily due to sanctions targeting its energy sector.
With the sanctions lifted, inflation rates decreased, exchange rates stabilized, and Iran’s exports, especially of oil, agricultural products, and luxury items, surged as Iran reestablished trading partners, particularly within the EU. After the JCPOA’s implementation, Iran’s daily oil exports exceeded 2.1 million barrels, approaching levels from before 2012 when oil sanctions were initially imposed.
However, these economic improvements did not lead to a significant increase in the average Iranian household’s budget.
The termination of sanctions waivers on oil exports and the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions in 2018 significantly affected Iran’s national revenue. In 2018, oil and petroleum products accounted for 80 percent of Iran’s exports [PDF], but by 2020, Iranian crude oil exports had declined to as low as one hundred thousand barrels per day. Subsequently, sales to China helped boost crude exports, reaching an average of 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2022.
Furthermore, in October of the same year, the United States imposed sanctions on eighteen major Iranian banks, causing the Iranian rial to depreciate further against the U.S. dollar.
Moreover, a broad spectrum of U.S. sanctions that are unrelated to the nuclear program has exacerbated the economic challenges. Multinational corporations are concerned about potential repercussions from the United States when engaging in transactions with entities in Iran that are subject to sanctions, such as those associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which wields influence over numerous industries. These sanctions have deterred international trade, leading to a flourishing black market that has enriched the IRGC at the expense of the regular economy.
What is the outlook for the agreement?
JCPOA signatories have struggled to rejuvenate the essentially defunct deal. The countries initiated discussions to bring Washington and Tehran back into the agreement in April 2021, but negotiations have since been off and on, complicated by events such as Iran’s election of conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi as president, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the 2023 Israel-Hamas war.
Iran’s apparent involvement in the two conflicts even resulted in additional sanctions. Just as certain UN-mandated provisions of the JCPOA were about to expire in October 2023, the Biden administration imposed new sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs, and the EU declined to lift the sanctions on its end. Furthermore, Washington and Tehran still hold differing views on several matters related to rejoining the agreement, including the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization, and U.S. officials assert that further nuclear advancements by Iran could impede a return to the original deal.