Climate Change and Regional Instability in the Middle East

The Middle East has experienced prolonged instability in the past few decades, with climate-related catastrophes exacerbating the preexisting hardships. Marwa Daoudy contends that it is imperative for the United States and its allies to prioritize their mitigation endeavors when extending aid to the region.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region grapples with a staggering over sixteen million refugees and internally displaced persons, a dire consequence of decades of unrelenting conflict and instability. According to the United Nations, more than seventy million people in this region are in urgent need of humanitarian aid.

Simultaneously, it stands as one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to the adverse impacts of climate change, with temperatures having risen by 0.2°C (0.36°F) between 1961 and 1990, and this warming trend is escalating.

Climate-related disasters such as droughts, the relentless spread of deserts, diminishing crop yields, the displacement of populations from low-lying coastal regions, and increasingly severe sand and dust storms are already jeopardizing human security. These factors heighten the risk of violence amid competition for dwindling resources.

Marwa Daoudy, a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center and an associate professor of international relations at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, emphasizes the paramount importance of the United States and its international partners recognizing the intricate relationship between instability and climate change.

This relationship is significantly influenced by “structures of power, individual government policies, and the often lackluster state of interstate negotiations.” Of particular concern is the weaponization of access to water in the region.

Groundwater resources, already under strain due to mismanagement and prolonged droughts, are exploited by both state and nonstate actors to assert dominance and legitimacy over populations during times of peace, as well as to gain a strategic edge during times of conflict.

The exploitation of natural resources has exacted a significant toll on human security. In Yemen, for instance, preexisting water scarcity issues were exacerbated by Saudi-led blockades, resulting in one of the highest cholera-related death rates in the world between 2016 and 2021.

In Iraq, ISIS found it easier to recruit fighters in regions affected by drought, while Turkey utilized water shutoffs in northeastern Syria as a means to suppress the expansion of Kurdish autonomy.

Daoudy highlights four interrelated challenges that compound the difficulties of successful climate adaptation in the MENA region: government mismanagement of the effects of climate change, managing resources across borders, the dynamics of urbanization and migration, and regional economic disparities.

Addressing all these challenges is vital to protect human security, and according to Daoudy, the United States possesses a range of strategies to do so. These strategies include prioritizing the sharing of climate-focused data and development assistance, leveraging alliances to shield the most vulnerable populations, mitigating the consequences of instability, and collaborating with international organizations to promote norms for resource protection.

Daoudy underscores that in the Middle East, where conflicts often persist and endure, prioritizing climate adaptation can be a daunting task. However, failing to do so could undermine prospects for long-term stability.

This discussion paper is the fourteenth in the Managing Global Disorder series, which explores ways to foster a stable and mutually beneficial relationship among major powers, thereby laying the foundation for increased cooperation on pressing global and regional challenges.

Funding for this Discussion Paper was provided by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The author is solely responsible for the statements made and the views expressed in this paper.

In conclusion, Marwa Daoudy’s insights shed light on the intricate web of challenges facing the MENA region, where climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities and conflicts.

Her call to action underscores the critical need for the United States and its international partners to prioritize climate adaptation in the region, recognizing its profound interplay with stability and security.

Daoudy’s recommendations, ranging from data sharing and development assistance to leveraging alliances and international organizations, present a roadmap for addressing the compounding challenges in the Middle East.

As climate change continues to reshape the region, taking these steps is not merely a choice but a necessity to safeguard human security, promote stability, and foster cooperation in a world grappling with managing global disorder.

“Peace is not the absence of conflict, but the ability to cope with conflict by peaceful means.” – Ronald Reagan